Trouble In Baghdad

The situation in Iraq is bad; very bad. There is at this point very little chance for a peaceful U.S. withdrawal that will leave behind a stable democracy friendly to the West. Things just keep getting worse as time goes by. As you've probably heard, the mayor of Baghdad was recently deposed by armed Shiite militia men and replaced with one of their own. They cited the desire to establish "the state of law for every citizen" as their prime motivation.

Meanwhile so-called insurgent attacks continue unabated. 44 Americans have been killed in the last 10 days. The "insurgency" is not weakening any more than the VC were weakening in 1968. Sure we kill more of them than they do us, but that was the case in Vietnam as well. In fact this conflict is eerily similar to the one 40 years ago. The Iraqis don't have to defeat the Americans in the field. They just have to keep killing them until the costs in blood and money are too much for the American people to bear.

But not only are Americans finally starting to realize the futility of the war (see the latest opinion polls)The Iraqi people are more and more coming to see the Americans as an invading force with no plans to leave anytime soon. They view our attempts to install a puppet government as imperialistic and hypocritical. Many live in terrible conditions, without basic services like clean water, sewage or electricity. For such people the democratic, freedom touting rhetoric is getting old. Under these conditions, we're spawning 2 or 3 new insurgents for every one we kill.

Also, despite the propaganda coming out of Washington, The current attempt to form an Iraqi constitution has been anything but a resounding success. There are serious disagreements at every turn. The Kurdish desire for self rule will pose a huge problem to any attempt to establish a peaceful, united Iraq. There are undoubtedly a number of factions waiting in the wings for a U.S. departure, after which their petty constitutional disagreements could turn into violent civil war and struggle for dominance. This is not to mention the inherent impotence of constitutions as legal documents. Even in America where there was common respect and understanding for the concept of the rule of law based on a constitution, it took scarcely 100 hundred years before it was effectively neutralized. How long will it take for one to fall apart in a Muslim country with a history like that of Iraq's?

But perhaps the most insane part of this whole sordid affair is the Bush regime's apparent insistence on a showdown with Iran as well. It may be that Iran was the real target from the beginning and that Iraq was meant to be a staging ground for eventual regime change in Iran. I'm sure the neocons at least thought that with a dominant U.S. presence in Iraq they could push the mullahs around a little more. Now it seems that this process has broken down completely and begun to reverse itself.

In their article Iranian Ironies Tom Engelhardt and Michael Schwartz write that, "The chief beneficiary of the occupation and the chaos it produced has not been the Bush administration, but Iran, the most populous and powerful member of the "Axis of Evil," and the chief American competitor for dominance in the oil-rich region. As diplomatic historian Gabriel Kolko commented: 'By destroying a united Iraq under [Saddam] Hussein…the U.S. removed the main barrier to Iran's eventual triumph.'"

We've greatly de-stabilized the region and you can bet Iran will be looking to take full advantage of the situation. What the region will look like in 10 years is anybody's guess, but I don't think it will be a pretty picture. Once again we have stuck our guns where they didn't belong and made a big mess for everyone. We'll most likely end up retreating and letting the Iraqis and Iranians clean up the mess we made. Regardless of the outcome, this is a dangerous game indeed with broad implications for the future of the international community. At least we can hope that like Vietnam, Iraq will eventually gain some semblance of stability and we will gradually be able to travel among and trade with them in peace. Just don't be surprised if it takes 30 years.